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Thread: When's the Right Time to Buy BP??

  1. #1

    When's the Right Time to Buy BP??

    So...I figured this should go in Entertainment due to the ongoing fiasco caused by our British friends in the Gulf of Mexico...

    With BP stock being down at the time of this post about 29 bucks since I unloaded it (no premonition here... I just set profit and loss percentages to bail on stocks in the depressed economy)...what's the best time to buy it again?

    Figure, that all efforts to contain the spill are going to fail until the relief well is dug in August .... the Gulf Coast Fishing industry is going to be thrashed for a long while, tourism, etc...latest estimates still only put BP's losses (assuming max payout in the corrupt system we have for penalizing them) at less than half of their 17 Billion profit for the year (worst case assume it doubles since we don't get told the entire truth on the damage...) heck even if it quadruples, the stock will end up going back up....I really like the current law that maxes their liability at 75 million pending the current legislation to "force" BP to pay for all damages like they claim they will...


    What say you? Buy a week before the relief well is done? Don't buy since you could say they have accomplished a more effective attack against America that any terrorist organization, or buy immediately after the relief well success?

    I'm of half a mind to just never buy their stock again, but the capitalist in me screams watch for an opportunity (since I'm sure things can get much worse before they are better). Course if I do buy them (BP) again, I just can't tell any of my friends that live on the U.S. gulf coast...

    BP: Summary for BP p.l.c. Common Stock- Yahoo! Finance

    Oil could hit Florida Panhandle by Wednesday



    Cheers,
    James

  2. #2
    I'm thinking a better investment might be collecting water outta Lake Ponchatrain. It's free, and inside a month it'll probably have enough oil content to bring $65/barrel.
    -- Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and good with ketchup. --

  3. #3
    Ha! Too true....course, I wonder what the oil mixed with the next hurricane or two will do to the still not-fixed levvies...

    had 2 on the Mississippi fail last month north of Memphis that flooded out my old work and old house (moved in Dec)...that "were on the list" to be fixed...I'm sure we haven't done too much more than band-aid the ones down that way since Katrina...

  4. #4
    Join Date
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    Some things to consider:

    BP is a UK company. So in the end the US won't be able to take them over like AIG or the banks.

    Obama is trying to use the gulf spill as an excuse to raise taxes on the oil sector.

    The Gulf Oil spill could cause the US to enter a double dip inflation should the oil spill spread to the Atlantic Coast of Florida and Carolinas.

  5. #5
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    It looks like BP won't be able to stop the oil spill until December which could affect the 2 million jobs and $185 billion dollar fishing industry.

    NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Ocean

  6. #6
    Yeah, unfortunately looks like we'll have the oil leaking for 6 months plus...
    here are a few of the articles discussing the Soviet Union's use of nukes to stop similar leaks...

    Oil spill latest: A nuke to stop the Gulf oil spill | GDS Publishing
    Use nukes to contain the oil spill

  7. #7
    Join Date
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    I don't believe that BP is any bargain. The ADR is $36.20 (present) vs the 52 week high of $62.38. Chevron or Royal Dutch Shell are better buys.

    At some point the economy is going to enter the double dip recession and at that point the market could drop to the 5000-6000 point range. BP could be selling for $20. Too much downside and too little upside.

    Quote Originally Posted by javanx3d View Post
    Yeah, unfortunately looks like we'll have the oil leaking for 6 months plus...
    here are a few of the articles discussing the Soviet Union's use of nukes to stop similar leaks...

    Oil spill latest: A nuke to stop the Gulf oil spill | GDS Publishing
    Use nukes to contain the oil spill
    I don't believe that DP want to destroy the well; so that, they won't be able to extract the oil in the future.

  8. #8
    Makes me wonder what other man-made production tasks (like oil well drilling) that if they go bad, we can't control....

  9. #9

    something I made for fun

  10. #10
    That's cool! Oh, and Aziz I'm really not blowing you off on the optest of the project! Promise....


    Diff note, I guess we need to go on the record for the "low price" prediction of the BP stock...
    my swami guess is $22 USD...end date of the forecast will be when the leak is stopped for good or Dec 15th...whichever is soonest. You have to state the current share price at the time of your guess and to make things consistent, ref the finance.yahoo.com share price. 34.58 as I type this post for a delta of 12.58 at the type of guess....

    For rumors and propaghanda on the forecasting...pundits on one of the podcasts I listen to on public transportation were saying BP made 17 Billion last year (profit) have not verified separately....so the big question is what is the real cost from the spill that makes the company feel pain?

    Diff note, the only oil stock that I don't drop freely based on the whims of the market, intuition, etc is Chevron due to an old family tie to Texaco (that Chevron bought several years ago)....I own 0 stock in BP. Got rid of it in March (un-related to the spill). Classically thought of as one of the more conservative Oil giants compared to Exxon and BP (Chevron)...but they haven't destroyed the Gulf Coast either. Some would say all the big oil folks are corrupt though...

    Cheers,
    James

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