Wordtracker vs. Actual Traffic Numbers
Fresh from my painful disillusionment with the Google Adwords Keyword Tool External, I decided to revisit my old friend Wordtracker.
I opened Wordtracker, went to Keyword Universe and and set my database option to Precise.
I pasted in the same 48 keywords I tested the Google AdWords Keyword Tool External with. These are all keywords where I hold "stable" #1 SERPs in Google.
I then continued through to the competitive analysis phases and chose "Google" as my target search engine.
Wordtracker displays two volume numbers: Count and 24Hrs.
The numbers in the Count column are "Taken from all Dogpile & Metacrawler queries over the last 160 days."
Wordtracker explains in depth:
This shows the number of times a particular keyword has appeared in our database.The 24hrs column is more interesting. Wordtracker says:
E.g. Our database currently holds 304,452,099 words. A count of 147 tells us that this particular word has appeared 147 times in (this is over 160 days).
Our keywords are taken from major metacrawlers (a service that queries all the main search engines simultaneously).
Our main sources are Metacrawler and Dogpile, the two largest Metacrawlers on the net. Metacrawlers have the major advantage of matching the search profile of the search engines very closely. But are not subject to the same kind of skew from software robots that continually check web site and pay per bid positions.
So how do these figures compare to real life traffic numbers?
This is the predicted daily traffic for each keyword in this search engine only.
Eg. If you see the number 33 in the 24Hr column, this tells you that we estimate this particular keyword to be queried 33 times today in this engine.
However this is not the actual number of people who will visit your site.
This would be impossible to determine as it depends on factors such as whether your title, description, are intriguing enough, and how close your site matches what people are looking for.
For a detailed look at how we reach our predicted figure, please click here
If you rank #1 in Google, you can expect to receive approximately 192.40% of the traffic reported by the 24hrs estimate for Google only.
As this is a comparison of Wordtrackers estimate for traffic just from Google and Analytics report of traffic from all search engines, these estimates look far more those provided by the Google AdSense Keyword Tool External.
However, if you look at the variances in the individual keywords, you can see that this data also varies so wildly from reality that it cannot be considered reliable.