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Thread: Is the Recession Over?

  1. #1
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    Is the Recession Over?

    Do you believe that the recession is over? I don't think that it will end this year. Most of the positive gains in the economy are due to US Government programs like cash for clunkers, $8000 First Time Buyers Program and stimulus spending.

    40% of subprime loans are delinquent or in foreclosure. The unemployment rate is 9.7% of the labor force not seasonally adjusted and the unemployment rate in California is 12%

    Foreclosures are expected to peak at the end of 2010. Can the worst be in front of us? How about a double-dip recession or W recovery?

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    In the US, there's a lot of inflation on food and wholesale prices. Even though the Government is reporting "zero" inflation.

    I believe that the little growth that is being reported is actually inflation.

  4. #4
    It is interesting that during most of the Bush years the press was lamenting that we were falling into a recession, even though it didn't happen until Bush's last year in office. Now that they have a president that their overwhelmingly strong support helped to elect, they are trying to con us into believing that the largest and most wasteful transfer of wealth to liberal causes in the history of the country is actually doing something good for most Americans, who will be paying for it.

    Do you notice that only the White House and the lackey liberal press are declaring the recession to be over? They are getting desperate to show some results from the stimulus package.

    The recent gains in the stock market are due to the lack of recent meddling by the White House and the sustained lower price of oil.

    The Cash for Clunkers program did a nice job of temporarily reducing excess inventories for car dealers, but the program ends today and I suspect that car dealers will be clamoring for more government spending for support. I have not yet seen a breakdown of the numbers, but I heard that most of the Cash for Clunkers money went to Toyota and Honda dealers, with GM dealers at the bottom of the list.

    A recession officially starts after two consecutive quarters of widespread economic decline, which is usually measured by a drop in GDP. A recession is over after two consecutive quarters of widespread economic growth. The recession is not over.
    "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote." -- Benjamin Franklin


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    Quote Originally Posted by TopDogger View Post
    The recent gains in the stock market are due to the lack of recent meddling by the White House and the sustained lower price of oil.
    The stock market can crash at any time. A 30% drop is not out of the question. October may be nasty.

  6. #6
    Recession is still around all over the world. . I think we will still feel its impact through the coming years

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    I was watching an interview with Dick Morris a few minutes ago. Dick Morris believes that we are going into a double dip decline. The US should have a small recovery and then later in 2010 a depression that will last at least two years. However, the 2010 depression will be worse than the current decline. Inflation will be increasing and it will impossible to do stimulus with causing double digit inflation or a collapse in the dollar.

    The worisome part is that the US debt is now out of control. We are reaching the point where the US can't afford the interest payments.

    To make matters worse, Social Security is going broke. By 2011, the US will not collect enough in payroll taxes to cover the payments. Already, the US is making cuts but it's probably too late.

    President Bush tried to pass social security reform in 2004. The measure was killed quicky. I wonder how the Dems will blame this one on Bush?

  8. #8
    Who would have thought that this immense crisis will be felt by US. Of all the super countries, US has been greatly affected by this global crisis.

    All we can do right now is to hold on, until this crisis will be over.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thebookmarker View Post
    Who would have thought that this immense crisis will be felt by US. Of all the super countries, US has been greatly affected by this global crisis.

    All we can do right now is to hold on, until this crisis will be over.
    The US is at the epicenter of the Global Financial Crisis. The housing decline is expected to continue until 2011. Banks will continue to take heavy losses. Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae continue to lose billions every quarter. The next 6 months are going to be hard for the banks as many homes are currently in default.

    The biggest issue is where the US is going to be able to borrow $2 trillion dollars per year to finance the US deficit?

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by bogart View Post
    President Bush tried to pass social security reform in 2004. The measure was killed quicky. I wonder how the Dems will blame this one on Bush?
    You know that they will try.

    Both Bush and McCain tried to head off the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac disaster as far back as 2001, but the Dems blocked every attempt to increase regulation.

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp4qEXNM&NR=1"]YouTube - Timeline shows Bush, McCain warning Dems of financial and housing crisis; meltdown[/ame]

    According to the polls, most people still blame Bush for the meltdown and several Democrat ads that I've seen recently clearly blame Bush's economic policies. They are stepping up the efforts to divert blame away from themselves and BO, and the lacky liberal press is co-operating. However, I do not think that they will get away with it much longer. Regardless of who is responsible, the president in office always gets the blame for a decline in economic conditions, regardless of his policies and actions. In this case, BO will get the blame because of his actions--and justifiably so.

    The majority of people in the USA are very shallow when it comes to politics. Very few people bother to investigate anything. It doesn't surprise me when I see polls where more than 50% of the people cannot name the Vice President. BTW, who is the Vice President?
    "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote." -- Benjamin Franklin


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